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Als Landbewohner dieses Planeten ist es nicht verwunderlich, dass wir nicht so richtig mitbekommen, was in den Meeren sich so abspielt. Die meisten, zu denen ich mich natürlich auch zähle, bekommen das Meer als toten Fisch auf den Teller serviert, wo sie einem mit ihren großen Augen anschauen und man alles versucht ihren Gräten zu entgehen, um an ihr zartes, schmackhaftes Fleisch zu kommen, am besten mit einem guten Wein dabei. Andere Menschen bevorzugen das Fischstäbchen, das ist halt Geschmackssache.

Dass es insgesamt wärmer geworden ist auf unserem Heimatplaneten, das wird insbesondere älteren Menschen, z.B. Ende 50+, sehr deutlich und so verschieden, wie die Menschen sind, so haben sie verschiedene Erklärungen dafür. Ich gehöre zu denen, die den Menschen als Ursache ausgemacht haben. Aber wenn es auf dem Land global wärmer geworden ist, dann sollten die Meere auch wärmer geworden sein, alles andere wäre schwer zu verstehen. Jedoch bevor das Meer effektiv wärmer wurde, ich erinnere 2023 wurden vor den Küsten Floridas bis 80 Meter Tiefe eine Wassertemperatur von 38° Celsius gemessen, ist etwas anderes in den Meeren passiert: Sie wurden immer saurer.

Wie kann das sein und da kommt leider wieder dieses vermaledeite CO₂ ins Spiel! CO₂ + Wasser ergibt Kohlensäure, wir kennen es aus unseren geliebten und gekühlten Getränken im Kühlschrank. Beim Öffnen der Flasche, das Zischen, bevor wir noch trinken, erschaudern wir vor Erleichterung und kühlen mindestens um 2° Celsius ab. Bedauerlicherweise ist dieser Effekt nicht auf die Atmosphäre und Meere dieses Planeten anwendbar.

Die Versauerung der Meere ist miserabel, für die Flora und Fauna in den Meeren. Denn ganz viele Meereslebewesen bestehen aus einer wohlgeformten Kalkschale. So haben australische Forscher schon 2009 festgestellt, dass weitverbreitete Planktonorganismen, die Foraminiferen, sehr viel dünnere Kalkschalen als früher haben. (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/versauerung-der-ozeane-kalkschalen-von-meeresbewohnern-werden-immer-duenner-a-612188.html). Dass eine Schwächung von Planktonorganismen keine gute Nachricht ist, auch wenn wir Menschen sie wohl eher selten direkt zu uns nehmen, sollte klar sein. Wir stehen eben nicht am Anfang, sondern am Ende der Nahrungskette.

Nun könnte man meinen, ein wärmeres Meer könnte ja auch ein Vorteil für die Meeresbewohner sein, denn je wärmer das Wasser, umso weniger kann es Kohlensäure binden, deswegen stellen wir ja u.a. die Getränke in den Kühlschrank. Tatsächlich steigt der Säuregehalt in den Meeren nicht mehr, aber er sinkt auch nicht, sondern verharrt auf einem hohen Sättigungsniveau.

Zudem sind auch erhöhte Meerestemperaturen für viele Meeresbewohner, z.B. Korallen, eine schlechte Nachricht. Bekannt ist dieser Effekt durch die seit Jahren auch in den Medien weit transportierte Situation im Great Barrier Reef vor Australien.

Warmes Wasser verstärkt die Korallenbleiche hauptsächlich durch den Stress, den es auf die Korallen ausübt. Korallen leben in einer symbiotischen Beziehung mit mikroskopisch kleinen Algen, bekannt als Zooxanthellen, die in ihren Geweben leben. Diese Algen sind entscheidend für das Überleben der Korallen, da sie durch Fotosynthese Nährstoffe produzieren, von denen die Korallen abhängen.

Wenn die Wassertemperatur jedoch über die für Korallen tolerierbaren Grenzen steigt, wird dieser fein abgestimmte symbiotische Prozess gestört. Die erhöhten Temperaturen führen dazu, dass die Korallen die Zooxanthellen ausstoßen, was oft als „Bleichen“ bezeichnet wird, weil die Korallen ihre Farbe verlieren und weiß erscheinen. Ohne diese Algen verlieren die Korallen eine wichtige Nahrungsquelle und sind mehr Stress ausgesetzt, was ihre Widerstandsfähigkeit gegenüber Krankheiten verringert und letztendlich zu ihrem Absterben führen kann, wenn die hohen Temperaturen anhalten.

Das Bleichen ist nicht sofort tödlich, aber wenn die Korallen nicht in der Lage sind, neue Algen in ihre Gewebe aufzunehmen, nachdem die Wassertemperaturen wieder normale Werte erreicht haben, können sie langfristig sterben. Das ist besonders problematisch, weil Korallenriffe eine enorme ökologische Bedeutung haben, als Lebensraum für tausende marine Arten dienen und Küstenregionen vor Erosion schützen.

Jetzt ist das “Great Barrier Reef” überall in den Meeren anzutreffen (Global Coral Reef Alliance)​.

Die Auswirkungen dieser Bleichereignisse sind besonders verheerend, da sie die ökologische Stabilität der Riffe untergraben und die Nahrungsnetze, die von diesen Ökosystemen abhängen, stark beeinträchtigen können. Korallenriffe bieten Lebensraum für eine Vielzahl von Meeresarten und sind zudem wichtig für den Küstenschutz und die lokale Fischereiwirtschaft. Die fortschreitende Bleiche der Korallen könnte somit nicht nur ökologische, sondern auch sozioökonomische Krisen nach sich ziehen​.

Wissenschaftler haben beobachtet, dass die Meeresströmungen, sowohl die warmen als auch die kalten, stärker als gewöhnlich erwärmt sind, was zu einem beschleunigten Wärmetransport von den Tropen zu den Polregionen führt. Dies wiederum verstärkt die polare Eisschmelze und trägt zu einer zunehmenden Schichtung der Ozeane bei, was die Situation weiter verschärft (positive Feedback).

In Bezug auf Gegenmaßnahmen wird empfohlen, umfassende Schutzmaßnahmen einzuführen, darunter aktive Restaurierungsprojekte, die Anpassung der Korallen an steigende Temperaturen, und vor allem die Reduzierung von Treibhausgasemissionen. Diese Maßnahmen sind entscheidend, um die Widerstandsfähigkeit der Korallen gegenüber den steigenden Temperaturen zu verbessern und langfristig ihre Überlebensfähigkeit zu sichern.

Da bleibt mir noch zu erwähnen, dass die OECD, übrigens keine Umweltorganisation, im Jahr 2022 das Absterben der Korallen in den Meeren als einen globalen, ökologischen Kipppunkt von weiteren vier globalen Kipppunkten identifiziert hat.

Mir scheint, es könnte der erste, aber nicht der letzte Kipppunkt werden.

This blog was created by using AI System ChatGPT 4.0.

The Reason for this blog post is the latest findings of the climate researchers: James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha.

James E. Hansen is renowned in climate research for his early warnings about global warming, notably his 1988 testimony before the U.S. Congress, which brought the issue of climate change to widespread public attention. As a former director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, his pioneering work in developing and using climate models to predict climate change impacts has made him a central figure in environmental science and advocacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen

In the quest to understand and combat climate change, voices like that of James E. Hansen, a leading climate researcher, are invaluable. Hansen’s recent comments shine a light on the complexities of global warming and challenge us to rethink our strategies for the future.

The researches see in their analyzed global temperature data an acceleration of the temperature growth on decades level:

As you can see from the upper chart (base temperature data comes from NASA https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/?intent=121) the slopes of the linear fits for the given time periods are clearly increasing.

Here’s what you need to know, broken down into more digestible pieces, why we see this development according to James E. Hanson and others.

The Current Climate Dilemma

Imagine our planet like a patient in a delicate state of health, with human activities tipping the scales towards fever. Hansen points out that we’ve been underestimating two critical factors in this equation: how sensitive our planet is to increases in greenhouse gases, and how much cooling aerosols (tiny particles in the air) have been helping us by offsetting some of the warming. It’s akin to realizing a fever is higher than the thermometer initially indicated.

Clean air is essential for our health, but paradoxically, reducing air pollution can temporarily accelerate global warming by removing aerosols that help cool the Earth. However, intentionally polluting to cool the planet is not a solution; we must focus on sustainable ways to reduce greenhouse gases without compromising air quality.

The Issue with Current Climate Models

Our global efforts to predict and mitigate climate change have leaned heavily on complex simulations known as Global Climate Models (GCMs). While incredibly sophisticated, Hansen argues these models miss the mark by not accurately accounting for the full effects of aerosols and the Earth’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases. It’s like using an outdated map to navigate a rapidly changing landscape.

What’s at Stake?

The ramifications of underestimating these factors are profound. Preserving the world as we know it, including our coastlines, ecosystems, and the global climate itself, may require us to do more than just halt global warming—we might need to reverse it. Yet, the path forward is unclear, muddied by optimistic policies that overlook the pressing energy needs and goals of burgeoning economies around the world.

A Call for Action

Hansen’s critique is a clarion call for a new direction. He urges us to move beyond wishful thinking and to adopt a more realistic approach to climate science—one that accurately reflects the nuances of our planet’s climate system and informs more effective strategies for mitigating climate change.

So, what can we do? Here are a few takeaways:

• Enhance Climate Models: We need better data incorporation and understanding of climate sensitivity and aerosol impacts.
• Cut Down on Emissions: It’s imperative to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions through renewable energy, energy efficiency, and moving away from fossil fuels.
• Innovate and Adapt: Investing in carbon capture technologies, sustainable infrastructure, and global policies that genuinely address the scale of the problem.
• Educate and Mobilize: Raising awareness and fostering a society that understands the stakes and is committed to sustainable living and policymaking.

The Path Forward

James E. Hansen reminds us that the journey toward a sustainable future is fraught with challenges and complexities. Yet, he also reiterates the possibility of a brighter future for the next generations. The solutions require not only scientific innovation and political will, but also a global acknowledgment of the shared responsibility we hold.

Anmerkung: Dieser Blog wurde auch mithilfe künstlicher Intelligenz (ChatGPT 4.0) erstellt.

Zu einem, der sich nicht mit dem Klimawandel, resultierend aus einer “Business as usual” Haltung, abgeben will, ist sicherlich der Astrophysiker und Naturphilosoph Harald Lesch zu zählen. Vor einigen Jahren schrieb er auch dazu das Buch: “Wenn nicht jetzt, wann dann?“

Wer über die Jahre hinweg Harald Lesch – oder Harry, wie er in seinen Fankreisen liebevoll genannt wird – und sein Engagement beim Thema Klimawandel verfolgt hat, wird leider seine wachsende Verzweiflung zu diesem Thema bemerkt haben.

Das “Business as usual Konzept” gegenüber dem Klimawandel lautet: “Was ich nicht weiß, macht mich nicht heiß!”

Harald Lesch als Physiker und Naturphilosoph kann sich nicht hinter solch einer Unwissenheit “verstecken”. Dementsprechend merkt man ihm recht offensichtlich seine steigende Besorgnis an.

In dem am Ende des Blogs verlinkten Beitrag von Harald Lesch und Dr. Cecilia Scorza werden viele, auch aus meiner Sicht, dramatische Aspekte des zurzeit beobachtbaren Klimawandels mit seinen künftigen Entwicklungen betrachtet, die wahrscheinlich zu viele gar nicht einordnen können.

Ich möchte zwei Aspekte aus diesem komplexen Thema herausgreifen: Zum einen, warum ist gerade das Spurengas CO₂ so ein Problem geworden für uns und alle anderen Lebewesen auf diesem Planeten und warum können wir sicher sein, dass der zweifelsfrei messbare Anstieg des CO₂ Gehalts in unserer Atmosphäre auch tatsächlich von uns, den Homo sapiens stammt?

Um den Effekt, den CO₂ auf unseren Planeten hat, zugänglicher zu machen, vergleiche man die Erde mal mit etwas Alltäglichem: einer Thermoskanne.

Stellen wir uns vor, die Erde wäre eine riesige Thermoskanne. Eine Thermoskanne hält Ihren Tee warm, indem sie verhindert, dass die Wärme entweicht. In unserem Fall spielt das CO₂ in der Atmosphäre die Rolle der Thermoskanne für die Erde.

Das CO_2-Molekül ist besonders, weil es nicht starr ist. Es kann sich bewegen, fast so, als ob es tanzen würde. Es gibt verschiedene Tanzbewegungen, die das Molekül ausführen kann: Es kann sich dehnen, also länger und kürzer werden, oder es kann sich neigen, sich hin und her wiegen. Diese Bewegungen sind wichtig, weil sie dem Molekül ermöglichen, mit Licht zu interagieren, genauer gesagt mit Infrarotlicht, das wir als Wärme wahrnehmen.

Wenn die Sonnenstrahlung die Erde erreicht, wird ein Teil dieser Energie in Form von Wärme (Infrarotstrahlung) zurück ins Weltall reflektiert. Hier kommt das tanzende CO₂ ins Spiel: Aufgrund seiner Beweglichkeit kann es die Wärme (Infrarotlicht) einfangen. Jedes Mal, wenn ein CO₂-Molekül mit einem Infrarotlichtstrahl kollidiert, absorbiert es einen Teil der Energie und hält diese sozusagen gefangen. Dann strahlt es diese Energie wieder aus, ein Teil davon geht ins Weltall, aber ein Teil wird auch zurück zur Erde gesendet. Das führt dazu, dass mehr Wärme innerhalb unserer “Thermoskanne” Erde bleibt.

Je mehr CO₂ in der Atmosphäre ist, desto mehr Wärme kann gehalten werden. Das ist vergleichbar mit dem Hinzufügen einer zusätzlichen Isolationsschicht zu unserer Thermoskanne. Dies führt dazu, dass die Temperatur auf der Erde steigt, was wir als globale Erwärmung kennen.

Die Interaktion zwischen Lichtteilchen (Photonen) und dem CO₂ Molekül ist sehr gut in diesem Gif dargestellt von der “University of Colarado Boulder”: https://phet.colorado.edu/

Physikalisch wird für wenige Mikrosekunden das CO₂ Molekül ein Teil der Infrarotstrahlung. Das CO₂ wandelt die eingehende Energie der Wärmestrahlung in mechanische Schwingungen um, die mit der gleichen Frequenz schwingen, wie die Frequenz der elektromagnetischen, thermischen Strahlung. Die Außenelektronen des Kohlenstoffatoms und der Sauerstoffatome können in diesen Mikrosekunden einen höheren Energiezustand erreichen, aber wie im wahren Leben sind sie froh, wenn sie wieder ernüchtert im Grundzustand sind und dabei geben sie ihre überschüssige Energie in Form von Wärmestrahlung (Abgabe eines Photonenteilchens) ab mit der gleichen Frequenz (Energie) wie die ursprüngliche anregende Strahlung. Nur und das ist jetzt das entscheidende, die Richtung der einfallenden Strahlung auf das Molekül wird bei der “Weiterleitung” der Strahlung verändert (siehe oben).

Auch hervorragend dargestellt ist das in dieser Simulation:

https://phet.colorado.edu/sims/html/molecules-and-light/latest/molecules-and-light_all.html?locale=de

Wenn man sich die Treibhausgase anschaut, dann fällt auf, dass sie alle ungeradzahlige Anzahl von Atomen haben. Diese ungerade Anzahl von Atomen in den Molekülen ermöglicht Asymmetrien bei Schwingungszuständen der Moleküle, die wiederum machen die Moleküle zu temporären elektrischen Dipolen, die mit thermischer, elektromagnetischer Strahlung wechselwirken kann. Und das ist gut so. Denn ohne diesen Mechanismus wäre es für Leben viel zu kalt auf diesem Planeten. Die globale Durchschnittstemperatur auf der Erde betrüge dann nur -15 Grad Celsius, das ist definitiv zu kalt für Leben. Ausrechnen kann man das über das Plancksche Strahlungsgesetz zum schwarzen Körper.

Aber die Dosis macht das Gift. Als Harald Lesch 1960 in die Welt trat, da betrug die CO₂-Konzentration 320 ppm (ppm = parts per million). Heute sind wir bei 420 ppm. Was bedeutet “parts per million”? Wenn man heute eine Million Luftmoleküle einsperrt, dann sind davon ganze 420 Moleküle ein CO₂ Molekül. Die zu finden in den eine Million Molekülen ist verdämmt schwierig. Man kann es tun, es ist technisch möglich, aber eben sehr aufwendig. Wenn wir es täten, dann empfänden wir den heutigen Spritpreis als ein Schnäppchen, also lassen wir es und warten auf Godot.

Ein CO₂ Konzentration von 420 ppm entspricht einem Anstieg gegenüber dem höchsten natürlichen vorindustriellen Niveau bei 300ppm in den letzten 800.000 Jahren von 40% und das hat folgen (siehe auch folgende Grafik zur CO₂-Konzentration über die letzten 800.000 Jahre, die aus dem Jahre 2021 stammt, Quelle: NOAA).

Können wir nun sicher sein, dass dieser enorme Anstieg des CO₂ Gehalts wirklich durch Verbrennung von fossilen Brennstoffquellen, zumeist für industrielle Fertigung und Fortbewegung zurückzuführen ist? Schließlich emittieren wir beim Atmen zusammen mit unseren lieben Rindern und Schweinen CO₂ beim Ausatmen und wenn der Furz mal quer sitzt.

In der Atmosphäre gibt es im Fall von Kohlendioxid (CO₂) tatsächlich Unterschiede. Nicht jedes CO₂ Molekül ist identisch aufgebaut.

CO₂ kann durch viele Prozesse in die Atmosphäre gelangen, wie zum Beispiel durch Atmen, Verwesung oder Verbrennung von Biomasse, was man als “neues” CO₂ betrachten könnte.

Dieses “neue” CO₂ enthält einen Mix aus verschiedenen Kohlenstoffisotopen, einschließlich C-14, einem radioaktiven Isotop, das natürlich in der Atmosphäre vorkommt und eine Halbwertszeit von etwa 5.730 Jahren hat (nicht 75 Jahre, was ein häufiger Irrtum ist. Auch Harald Lesch irrt manchmal, aber sehr selten). Durch kosmische Strahlung wird ständig neues C-14 erzeugt, wodurch ein ungefähr konstantes Verhältnis von C-14 zu den anderen Kohlenstoffisotopen in lebenden Organismen und der Atmosphäre aufrechterhalten wird.

Wenn nun Pflanzen durch Fotosynthese CO₂ aufnehmen, integrieren sie dieses Verhältnis von C-14 in ihre Struktur. Tiere nehmen durch den Verzehr dieser Pflanzen ebenfalls C-14 auf. Sobald jedoch ein Organismus stirbt, hört er auf, C-14 aufzunehmen, und das vorhandene C-14 beginnt zu zerfallen. Nach etwa 5.730 Jahren hat sich die Menge des C-14 im toten Material halbiert. Fossile Brennstoffe wie Kohle und Öl, die aus Überresten von Pflanzen und Tieren entstanden sind, die Millionen von Jahren tot sind, haben praktisch kein C-14 mehr.

Wenn wir fossile Brennstoffe verbrennen, geben wir CO₂ in die Atmosphäre ab, das kein C-14 enthält. Im Vergleich zu dem “neuen” CO₂, das durch Prozesse wie Atmen und Verwesung entsteht, lässt sich also sagen, dass das CO₂ aus fossilen Brennstoffen wie ein altes Foto ohne Datum ist – es fehlt das “radioaktive Produktionsdatum”, das C-14.

Über die letzten Jahrzehnte hinweg haben Wissenschaftler beobachtet, dass der Anteil von C-14-freiem CO₂ in der Atmosphäre zugenommen hat, was ein deutlicher Hinweis darauf ist, dass die Zunahme der CO₂-Konzentrationen vor allem auf die Verbrennung fossiler Brennstoffe zurückzuführen ist. Dieses Verständnis hilft uns, die menschliche Rolle beim Klimawandel besser zu begreifen, da es zeigt, dass der Anstieg der CO2-Konzentrationen nicht einfach ein natürlicher Teil des Kohlenstoffkreislaufs ist, sondern eine direkte Folge menschlicher Aktivitäten.

Da beißt die Maus keinen Faden ab, wir haben und emittieren weiterhin seit den 60zigern Giga Tonnen von CO₂ pro Jahr in die Atmosphäre, unsere, ähnlich wie die Meere, globale Müllhalde.

Um eine globale Erderwärmung auf 1,5 bis 2 Grad Celsius gegenüber der vorindustriellen Zeit zu halten, müssten wir Anfang der kommenden Dreißigerjahren auf 20-25 Gigatonnen CO₂ Emission zurückfahren und in den folgenden 20-30 Jahren auf Zero zurückrudern. Wer genau auf obige Grafik schaut, dem fällt auf, dass es der Menschheit gelang, die CO₂-Emissionen am Höhepunkt der COVID-19 Pandemie zurückzufahren auf 35 Giga Tonnen.

Ich persönlich glaube nicht, dass wir allein mit der Konversion zu grünen Energien, die ich sehr befürworte, es schaffen werden, die globale Erwärmung unter 2 Grad Celsius zu halten. Aber alles, was aber über zwei Grad Celsius liegt, wird in der Wissenschaft als sehr gefährlich für die Menschheit angesehen. Wir werden daher über obige CO₂ Emissionskurve noch zu sprechen kommen.

Ich teile zumindest die Ansichten von Harald Lesch zum Thema Klimawandel und alles, was damit zusammenhängt.

On the 25th of July in 2023, a scientific article by the Danish scientist couple Susanne and Peter Ditlevsen drew for some days a higher attention in the media, at least for media and private people concerned about the climate change development.

I asked ChatGPT to read the article and asked for help to understand this complex matter. Here is ChatGPT’s first overview of the paper:

The paper you’ve shared, authored by Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen, provides a detailed analysis of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its potential collapse by mid-century under current emission scenarios. Here’s an overview of the key points:

1. AMOC’s Importance: The AMOC is a critical part of the Earth’s climate system, influencing climate patterns in the North Atlantic region. Its collapse could lead to severe climate impacts.
2. Current Status and Predictions: While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has suggested that a full collapse of the AMOC is unlikely within the 21st century, this paper presents a more alarming view based on the detection of early-warning signals (EWS) such as increased variance and autocorrelation, indicating a loss of resilience and a critical slowing down of the AMOC.
3. Methodology: The paper describes a novel statistical method to estimate the timing of the AMOC collapse by analyzing changes in mean, variance, and autocorrelation of the AMOC’s strength, without assuming a specific control parameter. This method involves stochastic modeling and statistical analysis to predict the collapse around mid-century, with a 95% confidence interval.
4. Findings: The analysis suggests a significant risk of AMOC collapse between 2025 and 2095, with a high probability of occurrence by 2057. This prediction is based on a data-driven approach and statistical significance, providing a more robust assessment than previous models.
5. Implications: The potential collapse of the AMOC underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The paper emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AMOC and its early-warning signals to better predict and mitigate future climate risks.

This paper contributes significantly to our understanding of AMOC dynamics and the potential risks of its collapse, highlighting the need for immediate action to prevent severe climate impacts.

To coin it in scientific terms, I am quite confident that I won’t see the year 2057 personally, so why I care?

Two reasons: firstly, the couple Ditlevsen forecasts already 2025 onwards a chance that the AMOC breaks down, and secondly I hope my son will be alive in 2057.

But before we dive deeper in the understanding why a collapse of the AMOC could happen already in 21st century, let’s understand what the AMOC is:

ChatGPT:

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents that plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth’s climate, particularly in the North Atlantic region. Think of it as a giant conveyor belt in the ocean that moves warm water from the tropics towards the North Atlantic, where the water cools, sinks, and then flows back towards the equator and further on to the southern hemisphere. This process is driven by differences in water temperature and salinity, which affect the water’s density.

Why is the AMOC Important?

1. Climate Regulation: The AMOC helps distribute heat around the planet. By transporting warm water northward, it moderates the climate of Northern Europe and parts of North America, making these regions warmer than they would otherwise be at such latitudes.
2. Weather Patterns: It influences weather systems, particularly in the Atlantic, affecting rainfall patterns, storm paths, and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes.
3. Marine Ecosystems: The AMOC impacts marine ecosystems by moving nutrients around, supporting diverse marine life in both the deep and surface ocean layers. This has significant implications for fisheries and the broader marine food web.
4. Carbon Cycle: The circulation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle by transporting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the deep ocean, thus acting as a carbon sink and influencing the Earth’s carbon balance.
5. Global Climate System: The AMOC is interconnected with other parts of the global climate system, including the atmosphere and ice caps, meaning changes in the AMOC can have wide-reaching effects beyond just the Atlantic.

In summary, the AMOC is crucial for maintaining the climate we are accustomed to, supporting marine ecosystems, and regulating global climate dynamics. Disruptions or significant changes in the AMOC could lead to dramatic shifts in climate patterns, with wide-ranging impacts on weather, sea levels, and biodiversity, affecting societies and ecosystems around the globe.

The AMOC is very frequently described as a conveyor belt for transporting salt and heat through the oceans, here how it works in principle.

ChatGPT:

Heat Transportation:

1. Warm Start: The journey begins in the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean, where the sun’s heat is strongest. Here, the ocean water warms up significantly, making it lighter and causing it to stay on the surface.
2. Northward Journey: This warm, surface water then travels northward along the coast of North America towards Europe. As it moves, it carries the tropical warmth with it, like a massive, gently flowing river in the ocean.
3. Cooling Down: When this warm water reaches the North Atlantic, near Greenland and the Arctic, the colder surroundings cool it down. Cold water is denser than warm water, so as the surface water cools, it starts to sink.

Salt Transportation:

1. Evaporation: In warmer regions, some of the ocean water evaporates due to the heat, leaving behind salt. This makes the water saltier and denser.
2. Mixing and Sinking: As the water travels north and cools, it not only becomes denser from losing heat, but also from the saltiness left behind by evaporation. This extra density from the salt helps the water sink even deeper when it cools.

The Deep Return:

1. Deep Ocean Current: Once the water has sunk, it creates a deep ocean current that flows back towards the equator and further into the Southern Hemisphere. This deep, cold, and dense water makes its way around the globe in the deep ocean, eventually mixing with warmer waters and rising back to the surface in a process that can take hundreds of years.
2. Completing the Loop: As the deep water warms up and rises, it becomes less dense and starts its journey back to the surface, eventually warming up in the tropical regions and starting the cycle over again.

This continuous movement of warm and salty water towards the poles and cold water towards the equator creates a global circulation system, distributing heat and regulating climate around the world. It’s like a giant, natural thermostat that helps keep our planet’s climate in balance.

So even if you are, like me, no oceanographer nor climate scientist nor something related, you understand this conveyor belt is “somehow” important for us.

Again, before we try to understand why a forthcoming AMOC collapse in this century could appear, we should realize that the AMOC has already collapsed in ancient epochs several times:

ChatGPT:

The AMOC has experienced significant changes, including collapses, during Earth’s history, particularly during ancient epochs. These events are fascinating because they give us clues about how Earth’s climate system works and how it can change. Here’s a simplified explanation:

Ancient Epochs and AMOC Changes:

1. Ice Ages and Warm Periods: Throughout Earth’s history, there have been cycles of ice ages (glacial periods) and warmer intervals (interglacial periods). During these times, the AMOC has shown significant variations in strength and pattern.
2. Rapid Changes: Evidence from ancient sediments, ice cores, and other geological records shows that the AMOC can change rapidly, within a span of a few years to decades, leading to significant climate shifts. These rapid changes are often linked to sudden releases of freshwater into the North Atlantic, which can disrupt the delicate balance of the ocean’s salt and heat transport.

Effects of AMOC Collapses:

1. Cooling Events: When the AMOC weakens significantly or collapses, it can lead to rapid cooling in the North Atlantic region. This is because the warm, tropical waters are no longer being transported northward effectively, reducing the warming effect on these regions.
2. Climate Shifts: Such collapses have been associated with widespread climate changes, including cooler temperatures in Europe and North America, shifts in rainfall patterns, and even impacts on monsoons in Asia.
3. Past Examples: One of the most well-studied events is the Younger Dryas, a sudden cooling period about 12,000 years ago, which is thought to have been caused by a massive influx of freshwater from melting ice sheets into the North Atlantic, disrupting the AMOC.

Why It Matters:

Studying these ancient events helps scientists understand the potential impacts of current and future changes in the AMOC due to human-induced climate change. It provides a context for what might happen if the AMOC were to weaken or collapse in our time, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and understanding this critical component of Earth’s climate system.

In summary, the AMOC’s changes in the past have had profound effects on the global climate. By learning from these ancient episodes, scientists aim to better predict and mitigate potential future climate changes.

So now we have I think a comprehensive overview of the AMOC. Why the researchers Ditlevsen see a high chance of a collapse for the AMOC within this century?

ChatGPT

“This paper presents a more alarming view based on the detection of early-warning signals (EWS) such as increased variance and autocorrelation, indicating a loss of resilience and a critical slowing down of the AMOC.“

What is the meaning of “early-warning signals (EWS) such as increased variance and autocorrelation” in the context of a global conveyor belt of salt and heat within Earth’s oceans?

ChatGPT

The early-warning signals are about the tipping point that the global conveyor belt interrupts and to make it clear: If it interrupts, then it will be interrupted for a very long time because there is no way at all from the current point of view that humans can turn it on (we can only turn it off unfortunately).

The term “increased variance and autocorrelation” contains scary statistic measures which need to be explained:

ChatGPT

Increased Variance:

Variance refers to how much the values of a particular variable differ from the average value over a period. In simpler terms, if the variance is high, it means that the measurements of that variable (like temperature or current strength in the AMOC) are more spread out — they fluctuate more widely around the average. An increase in variance in the context of the AMOC suggests that its strength and behavior are becoming more unpredictable and less stable, which could indicate a system approaching a critical threshold or change.

Autocorrelation:

Autocorrelation is a measure of how similar the values in a sequence are to each other at different times. For instance, if the AMOC’s strength today is similar to its strength yesterday and the day before, the autocorrelation would be high. This measure helps in understanding the persistence of a condition over time. An increase in autocorrelation in the AMOC would suggest that whatever happens to the system at one time is increasingly likely to influence its state at a subsequent time, indicating a slowing down of the system’s dynamics. In other words, it means that it gets “tired” and it doesn’t react anymore to the embedded system environment so quickly. Hence, it is a sign of approaching a tipping point where significant and potentially abrupt changes could occur. This is critical because it implies that once near a tipping point, the system might not recover or adapt easily to external stresses, leading to more profound and lasting changes.

In this case, I think two simple sketches will explain the terms variance and autocorrelation in context to a tipping point even better:

Top diagram (Stable Variance): This diagram shows a ball in a wide, shallow valley, illustrating a stable situation where the AMOC can easily return to its equilibrium state despite disturbances. The wide shape of the valley represents the system’s resilience, where external influences are unlikely to push it out of balance. This stability ensures that the AMOC can recover quickly from disruptions, maintaining its crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate.

Bottom diagram (Higher Autocorrelation): Here, the ball is in a deep, narrow valley. In compare to the upper scenario, the ball is at a higher energy level (hint: climate change is an increase in energy in oceans and atmosphere). This represents the system being more affected by change, taking longer to return to a stable state after being disturbed. The high autocorrelation means that the current state of the system is heavily influenced by its previous states, indicating a “memory” effect that can be a precursor to a tipping point, as it may not respond quickly to further disturbances.

To measure the variance and autocorrelation of the AMOC, the scientists Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen used advanced statistical techniques on temperature and salinity data collected from the ocean. Here’s a simplified explanation:

1. Data Collection: They gathered historical data that tracks changes in ocean temperature and salinity over time, which indirectly reflect changes in the AMOC.
2. Calculating Variance: They calculated the variance by determining how much the data points (temperature and salinity) deviated from their average values over time. This tells them how much fluctuation or instability is present in the AMOC.
3. Calculating Autocorrelation: They then measured autocorrelation by examining how closely related data points are with their previous values over time. High autocorrelation indicates that present conditions are heavily influenced by past conditions, suggesting a slowing down of the system’s dynamics.

The Ditlevsens used multiple sources of data for their analysis, typically involving oceanographic datasets that include measurements of temperature, salinity, and flow rates, collected from satellite observations, ocean buoys, and ship-based sampling. These datasets are essential for tracking the behavior and changes in the AMOC over time.

But as it is part of such a scientific paper, also the criticism of their study appeared soon.

ChatGPT

The scientific community has expressed varied reactions to the Ditlevsens’ article predicting a potential collapse of the AMOC. Some key points from experts include concerns about the data used, the assumptions made, and the models employed in their study.

1. Concerns About Proxy Data: Some critics point out that the Ditlevsens’ predictions rely heavily on proxy data from sea surface temperatures, which might not accurately reflect the true state of the AMOC. Continuous direct measurements of the AMOC have only been available since 2004, making long-term conclusions less certain​ (Science Media Centre)​.
2. Model Assumptions: The model assumptions have also been questioned. The Ditlevsens assume that the AMOC is bi-stable (having an “on” and “off” state) and can switch rapidly between these states. This bi-stable assumption is debated, with some suggesting that the AMOC might respond more smoothly to changes in the climate system. If the assumptions in their model are correct, the implications would indeed be profound; however, other plausible models might yield different conclusions.
3. Skepticism from Broader Climate Models: Some experts argue that the broader, more comprehensive climate models do not show the bifurcation (a sudden, drastic shift) suggested by the Ditlevsens. This has led to skepticism about the urgency and likelihood of an AMOC collapse as portrayed in the study.
4. Importance of Continued Monitoring: Despite these criticisms, there is a consensus on the importance of continuing to monitor the AMOC. Variability in its strength is crucial for understanding regional and global climates, and thus, even those critical of the study acknowledge the necessity of ongoing research and observation​​.

Overall, while the study by the Ditlevsens has sparked significant discussion and brought attention to the potential risks associated with changes in the AMOC, it also highlights the complexities and uncertainties involved in predicting such critical transitions in Earth’s climate system.

But the story does not end here. In February 2024, a Dutch research team published as well a scientific work about the AMOC: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course”. The scary thing is that they did it much more advanced and reliable in compare to the statistical approach of the Ditlevsens, but the outcome is pointing into the same direction at least.

Here, the details presented from ChatGPT 4.0 analyses:

The Dutch research team led by René M. Van Westen, Michael Kliphuis, and Henk A. Dijkstra conducted a comprehensive study focusing on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the potential for its collapse. Here’s an overview of their research as detailed in the document you provided:

Key Findings

1. Physics-Based Early Warning Signal: The team developed a new, physics-based early warning signal to detect the tipping point of the AMOC collapse. This signal is based on monitoring the minimum AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic.
2. AMOC Simulation: They conducted simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), showing a gradual weakening of the AMOC under increasing freshwater forcing, which led to a simulated collapse after approximately 1750 model years.
3. Impact of AMOC Collapse: The study outlined significant climate impacts due to the AMOC collapse, such as dramatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and alterations in sea ice distribution and regional climates globally. This includes profound changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, affecting ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest.

Methodology

• Modeling Approach: They used a quasi-equilibrium approach with added freshwater flux anomalies in the North Atlantic, maintaining other climatic forcings at pre-industrial levels during the simulations.
• Innovative Measurement: The researchers focused on the freshwater transport dynamics at 34°S as a critical indicator, emphasizing its role in the salt-advection feedback mechanism which is crucial in AMOC stability.

Significance and Novelty

• This study is one of the first to identify an AMOC tipping event in a complex General Circulation Model (GCM) used for climate projections. Their findings suggest that traditional statistical early warning signals might not be sensitive enough and highlight the necessity for a more physics-integrated approach.

Critiques and Further Research

• The simulation showed that while the traditional early warning indicators like increased variance and autocorrelation were not consistently reliable, the newly proposed physics-based indicators showed more promise in predicting AMOC’s behavior.

This research adds significantly to our understanding of AMOC dynamics and tipping points by integrating physics-based indicators, which could potentially offer more precise predictions and early warnings about AMOC’s future states. This advancement in modeling and warning systems is crucial for preparing for and potentially mitigating the severe climatic impacts of an AMOC collapse.

Remarks:

In climate modeling, “model years” typically refer to the passage of time within the simulation rather than actual calendar years. The starting point of a model can be any year, depending on the preindustrial or historical setup used, and the progression follows the conditions set by the experiment (like greenhouse gas concentrations, solar forcing, etc.). Therefore, stating that a collapse happens after 1750 model years doesn’t mean it predicts a collapse in the year 3750 AD; it indicates how long it takes after the initial conditions are set for the system to collapse under those specific simulated conditions.

Could a Collapse Happen This Century?

According to the findings from the Dutch research, they noted potential early warning signs and shifts within their simulations that could imply increased risks of an AMOC collapse under sustained or specific stresses like significant freshwater influxes. Real-world observations and other models have also suggested that while an AMOC collapse this century is possible, it is still considered unlikely. However, they do show that the AMOC is weakening, which aligns with concerns about its stability due to ongoing climate change.

The real-time risk of an AMOC collapse this century hinges on various factors, including the rate of global warming, ice melt rates, and changes in salinity and temperature gradients across the Atlantic. It’s a subject of active research, with different models providing varying timelines based on their specific parameters and scenarios.

The Dutch research team conducted their AMOC simulation using the Dutch National Supercomputer Snellius. This detail indicates the computational power required for such complex climate modeling. The procession of the simulation took about half a year.

Finally, we should take a look at this diagram:

The graph shows the daily sea surface temperature from 1981 to 2024 for a broad region of the world, tracking annual fluctuations and highlighting the mean temperature and standard deviations over this period. The apparent sharp increase in average temperature in 2023 and 2024 is particularly noticeable.

Interpretation of the Graph:

• Annual Lines: Each gray line represents the sea surface temperature for a specific year, plotted daily.
• Dashed Black Lines: These indicate the mean (average) sea surface temperature calculated from data spanning 1982 to 2011. The lines marked as “plus 2σ” and “minus 2σ” represent two standard deviations above and below the mean, respectively. This range indicates the typical variability in temperature expected due to natural fluctuations.
• Orange Lines: The temperatures for 2023 and 2024 show a significant deviation above the historical average, especially in 2024, where the temperature remains consistently higher than the mean.

Potential Reasons for the Anomaly:

1. Climate Change: The most likely explanation for sustained increases in sea surface temperature is global warming driven by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This trend aligns with global observations of rising ocean and atmospheric temperatures.
2. El Niño Events: These periodic climatic events can cause significant, temporary increases in sea surface temperatures across large areas of the Pacific Ocean, which can affect global weather and climate patterns. An El Niño event could explain a sudden spike in temperatures.
3. Changes in Ocean Currents: Shifts in major ocean currents could redistribute warm water differently, potentially explaining regional increases in sea surface temperatures.

And to make it clear, a slowdown of the AMOC, which we already see in the measurement data, can cause the following:

1. Heat Redistribution: The AMOC transports warm water from the tropics northward across the Atlantic, contributing to milder climates in Western Europe and affecting weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. If the AMOC slows down or alters its path, this could redistribute heat across the globe, potentially leading to increases in sea surface temperatures in other regions.
2. Climate Feedbacks: A weaker AMOC could lead to less heat being removed from the tropics and more remaining in the equatorial regions, which could increase global sea surface temperatures. Additionally, changes in the AMOC can impact sea ice, cloud cover, and atmospheric circulation patterns, all of which play roles in the global climate system and can further influence temperatures.
3. Interactions with Other Systems: The AMOC is also linked with other oceanic and atmospheric patterns, such as El Niño, the Southern Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Changes in the AMOC could exacerbate or modify the effects of these systems, leading to broader impacts on global climate.

Bottom line: Houston, we have a problem!

This blog has been designed by myself, but it was improved by ChatGPT 4.0.

Introduction:

In today’s fast-paced digital age, accessing information should be as simple as having a conversation. Enter the innovative concept of a chat system that merges the capabilities of ChatGPT with Azure Cognitive Search, allowing users to “talk to their data.” This blog delves into this novel approach and its implications.

The Concept:

1. User Prompt: Everything begins with a user posing a question or input, just as they would in any chat environment.
2. ChatGPT 3.5:
   • Down scaling User Prompt: Before diving into data retrieval, the system efficiently processes and simplifies the user’s question, ensuring that it’s well-structured for searching.
   • Data Conversion: Once the Azure Cognitive Search fetches the relevant data, ChatGPT converts the search results into a comprehensible answer. This translation is versatile, adapting to both the language the query was made in and the language of the source data.
3. Azure Cognitive Search: The heart of our data retrieval system. This powerful tool digs through:
   • Structured Data: Databases, tables, and other organized repositories.
   • Unstructured Data: Such as files, images, documents, and more, ensuring no stone is left unturned.

Implications & Advantages:

• Intuitive Interaction: The system feels like chatting with an expert who instantly fetches and decodes information from vast data reservoirs.
• Language Agnostic: With ChatGPT’s capabilities, the system transcends language barriers, making it universally accessible.
• Swift & Efficient: By interfacing directly with Azure Cognitive Search, the system ensures rapid data retrieval and response times.

Wrapping Up:

The seamless integration of ChatGPT with Azure Cognitive Search heralds a new era in data interaction. By allowing users to converse with their data, we’re not just enhancing the user experience; we’re redefining it.

That’s it really?

So as you can easily see, that was the marketing version of the “chat with your data system” but frankly spoken and that I say at thirty years of professional software development: If someone had told me in January 2023, that this can be enabled by really a few lines of Python code I would have ignored this person and probably asked him or her to consult the doctor.

But where is the catch, there must be one and luckily, there are a few, so that ordinary software application developers are still needed, at least for now ;-).

Firstly, we have to understand how Azure Cognitive Search works.

Imagine your bookshelf at home. You have hundreds of books, notes, and maybe even some pictures. Now, if you had to find a specific quote from a book or a particular photo, it could take ages. But what if you had an organized system, a magical index, that instantly told you where to find what you’re looking for (definitely not the situation at my home)?

Azure Cognitive Search is like that magical index for digital information.

What is an Index?

In the context of our bookshelf, an index is a list that tells you where specific information is located. Think of it like the table of contents in a book or the catalog in a library. In Azure Cognitive Search, an index does a similar job but for vast amounts of digital data. It helps the system understand where everything is so that when you ask for something, it can find it quickly.

Why is Azure Cognitive Search Useful for Application Developers?

Being a software developer is like being a chef. You’re not expected to farm your ingredients; you just need to cook them. Similarly, as a developer, you shouldn’t have to build a search system from scratch. Azure Cognitive Search is like a pre-prepared ingredient. It’s a ready-to-use, sophisticated search system, saving developers the hassle of ‘farming’ one themselves. By using Azure Cognitive Search, developers can focus on what they do best: building great applications.

The Magic of AI Skills

Imagine if your bookshelf could tell you where a book is and suggest other relevant books, or even summarize the contents for you. That’s what AI Skills in Azure Cognitive Search do. They enhance the search with abilities like understanding the content in images or summarizing large texts. By using AI Skills, the search system becomes smarter, understanding context and making connections, ensuring you find exactly what you’re looking for, and sometimes, even more!

That sounds again as if Azure Cognitive Search does everything for you. But as simple as that, it is not. Appropriate pre- and post-processing of the incoming query respectively of the out coming search results is required to get answers that meet the intention of your query or request.

At first, you must set up the scene in ChatGPT to set the system prompt. The system prompt enables ChatGPT to work as an agent in collaboration with another expert system, in this case realized by Azure Cognitive Search:

Code excerpt of Python source

On the programmatic level, you send to ChatGPT a message array that consists of objects with the attributes role and content. The content that you pass to the role “system” serves as a guideline for the overall background/context of the following conversation. You usually set up this system prompt only once at the beginning of the conversation. But as you see, you need only to set the string variables topic, user_language, source_language and summary_length and ChatGPT can switch from one expert area to another one.

Of course, you also need the topic relevant data with an appropriate index on Azure:

Above you see a data pool for the topic “climate crisis” and another one for the new “industry strategy of Germany” in the Azure cloud. These two data pools inside one Azure blob storage are linked to an Azure Cognitive Search Instance by using for each topic a different index. It is common practice that the blob storage and the Azure Search service run inside one resource group, which bundles the technical resources on one cluster to minimize access and retrieve time.

The whole conversation is mimicked with the following for… loop that receives the questions from a string array called prompt. The answers are returned from the response_request Python function and afterward the answers are placed as context information in the uses ChatGPT message object and additionally the prompt questions and related answers are stored in a CSV file.

The Python function reviseSearchResponse does the above-mentioned post and preprocessing of the user’s prompt input side and the post-processing when feeding the Azure Search result into the ChatGPT response stream.

So why pre- and post-processing is needed?

As one topic pool, I took the document of BMWK (German Ministry for Economy and Climate) regarding its new proposed industry strategy for Germany, addressing the new geopolitical and climate change related challenges of our time.

And then I started to ask, and you will see what problem emerges quite at the start:

The question “Which problems with German industry are discussed in the document?” is a question with a wide range of possibilities for answering it. Though the answer contains significant topics of the document, it is incomplete, why?

Cognitive Search delivers a search result of three thousand words, which covers really all relevant topics, but the ChatGPT 3.5 can handle “only” around 4000 tokens that are again round about 4000*0.75=3000 words. But these 3000 words that ChatGPT 3.5 can handle are reserved for the words it receives, that are already blocked by the system prompt (see above) and for the words it wants to generate. In my system, I used as a threshold value to curb the response of Azure Cognitive Search by 1000 words. By this, you balance as well the response time of ChatGPT which, of course, needs more time for answering a request if it gets a higher load rather than a lower one.

But how to prevent missing relevant parts of your answer. There are many strategies to mitigate the problem, one way is to condense the response of Cognitive Search by sqeezing the text using powerful text summary Python libraries like sumy

So you use another AI which is transferring its text summary of Cognitive Search to ChatGPT, that then finally tries as its best to understand the question and relate its understanding to the condensed search results of Azure Cognitive Search to formulate an appropriate answer. And that it does by the way in incredible fast time.

Is it truly an issue in this context if the initial response to a question isn’t fully complete? You are in a conversation and if I ask a person about a complex subject, I won’t expect that he or she will give me a complete, sufficient answer in one shot, either. It’s the magic of communication that takes place between the talking people and now also talking machines, where a common context is grounded during discussion, which usually broadens your horizon.

Of course, you can fall into traps with this strategy. What happens if the user asks a quite specific question: Can you condense what is told about the microelectronics industry in chapter 2.2 b?

If you have bad luck, the answer of Cognitive Search will be again over 1000 words, you condense this information by sumy and that squeezes all about microelectronics so heavily that the gist of this part of the document gets lost, and you get a flaw answer.

You can mitigate this problem by looking first into the metadata of the Cognitive Search answer. Besides delivering relevant raw text information, it returns a list of relevant persons, locations, organizations and key phrases that are involved in the search results and in there you will find the term “Mikroelektronik” allowing you to seek for this term in the response specifically so that you can deliver to ChatGPT a more narrow but detailed answer as you see above.

With these two simple post-processing steps, checking whether the key terms of your query can be detected in the metadata of your Cognitive Search response respectively using another AI to condense the response to an amount of data ChatGPT can handle, you can manage already many use cases for your chatbot. At least to ask in English a German text and receive a reasonable answer in Chinese or Hebrew:

For me, at least it looks excellent 😉

If you really want to utilize your data by making them accessible using natural language, I can only recommend and encourage you to contact my colleague Volker Luegger. He and his team are experts on this matter and are currently working on proofs of concepts for two of our customers, making their data accessible by chatting.

Enabling business data of a cooperation for natural data access does not “only” require that you deliver appropriate and correct data to your client, but also you must ensure that he or she is allowed to access the data. In cooperations, complex access rules exist that mainly depend on your department and function within your corporation.

In combination with more and more capable speech recognition software like WHISPER from Open.AI, the time that we will access our computers by keyboard, touch display and something like a mouse will fade away, most probably already in a few years.

Scotty, it is time to beam me up…

So on Wednesday, the 25th of October 2023, the famous tourist destination was hit by a Hurricane of category five. From the first pictures I saw on social media, I think it is not exaggerated to say: Acapulco, a city with one million inhabitants, has been destroyed. How many people have been killed by this storm event, we don’t know yet, and I even admit I don’t want to know. Sure is only that there will be far too many that have lost their lives.

Besides this human tragedy, which is effectively not expressible by words, it is so striking how quickly this weather event developed from a tropical storm to a very dangerous storm of category five. Hence, there was almost no warning that such a disastrous landfall of a storm could happen, making everything worse for the people in this region.

What might be the reason that this storm developed within 12 hours from a tropical storm to a category five storm? Honestly, I cannot tell, I am not a climate expert. But attribution-climate researchers will be able to tell very soon what climate change has to do with this weather event. I speculate that we will see that this drastic storm had also been ‘fueled’ by El Niño. That means very likely we had an overlapping of human and natural caused weather fluctuations.

The fact is that the sea around Acapulco had an average temperature of 30-31° Celsius, which is almost one degree more than in the reference period from 1990 to 2020.

What has unfortunately very commonly not been told when discussing climate change is that the temperature of the global seas has also risen dramatically. For the past 40 years, there have also been measurements available from satellites and buoys. From this data, scientists have found that over the full period of the records, global mean sea surface temperature has increased by close to 0.9°C, and that the increase over the past four decades is about 0.6°C. So some might say, come on 0.9°C that’s not a big deal, but to increase the average water temperature of the global seas of this planet is something different from increasing the water in your kettle by one degree Celsius to make coffee or tea. As I stated in my last blog, temperature measuring is actually a measurement of kinetic energy of molecules within a fluid or gas. And on this graph from the NOAA (US Authority -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-) you see how 0.9 degrees Celsius temperature increase translates into an energy increase measured by physicists in Joule.

Since these incredible high Joule numbers won’t tell too much, I asked ChatGPT to explain this diagram (Consider: Pictures are also a language, and therefore Large Language Models understand them as well)

ChatGPT 4.0

The graph you’ve provided demonstrates the ocean heat content anomaly over the past several decades. The concept of “anomaly” might sound complicated, but it simply means the difference from an average or baseline value. This chart shows how much more (or less) heat the ocean is storing compared to its historical average.

To break it down in a more understandable manner:

1. Setting the Scene: Imagine the ocean as a giant bathtub. Normally, this bathtub has a certain warmth to it, which represents our average or baseline.
2. The Dipping Thermometer: The chart starts in 1960 and runs to 2020. If we think of this as dipping a thermometer into our ocean bathtub over 60 years, we can see how the water’s temperature changes over time.
3. Cooling and Warming: The bars below the zero line in the early years indicate that the ocean was cooler (or had less heat content) than the average. As time progresses, especially after the 1990s, the bars rise above the line, which means the ocean’s heat content has increased.
4. The Spiking Thermometer: The stark rise in red bars after 1990 is similar to a fever spike in a sick person. It demonstrates that the ‘fever’ or heat of the ocean has been rising at an alarming rate in recent decades.
5. A Practical Analogy: Consider a pot of water on a stove. Initially, if the flame is low, the water warms slowly. But if the flame suddenly increases (like the red bars after 1990), the water heats up much faster. The red bars represent the ocean’s rapid ‘heating’ due to increased greenhouse gases, primarily from burning fossil fuels.
6. Why it Matters: A warmer ocean can have various impacts. Just like a heated pot of water starts to steam and boil, a warmer ocean can fuel more intense hurricanes and typhoons. It also leads to sea-level rise as warmer water expands. This doesn’t just affect marine life but impacts coastal cities, economies, and millions of lives around the world.

That tells us a clever machine, and the people of Acapulco will unfortunately probably confirm as well.

In addition, I want to remind you about another catastrophic ecological event which happened this year in Canada. After first estimations, about five billion trees burned down in Canada from March 2023 until now (end of October 2023). The wildfires are unfortunately until now not all ceased. These five billion burned down trees cover an area more than half of the area of Germany. Again, some people will say, Germany is not that big but five billion trees are a lot, respectively were a lot.

In the science paper “Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” published in Nature Communications, this research looks at a possible collapse of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridial Overturning Circulation, the Gulf Stream is a part of that) and talks about increased autocorrelation of the AMOC. It was written by Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen from the University of Copenhagen. The authors used statistical methods to detect early warning signs of a critical transition of the AMOC, based on sea surface temperatures in a region between Greenland and Great Britain. They found that temperature autocorrelation in this region has increased in recent decades, suggesting that the system is slowing down and losing its resilience. They have also given estimates for the time of the collapse to be between 2025 and 2095, with mid-century being the most likely. The article has attracted a lot of attention and been discussed in various media.

I don’t want to comment on this article now, but I intend to make a deep dive into this paper with the help of ChatGPT 4.0 because the matter requires a lot of knowledge about statistical analyses, which I have only in part. I just want to explain the term autocorrelated.

In a simplified manner, autocorrelation means that a system sticks in its current state and is less able to restore its natural “normal” state. Let’s take the example, you have just woken up, and drunk your cup of coffee and are fresh in mind. Plenty of disturbances enter now your space like e.g. colleagues, customers, family and simply everything, but you are experienced and handle all. At the end of the day, you get more and more tired and stuck in your task list, and you don’t see any progress. A statistician would call your state highly autocorrelated. So if you next time stick in your problems, tell your environment you are at present too highly autocorrelated and cannot help.

To apply the term autocorrelation to the AMOC is of course, a big mathematical challenge, but let’s see if I will be able to understand what the Danish Scientists found out.

So where is the good news?

Yes, there is some and we should not ignore them.

Let’s take a look at this diagram, and I asked ChatGPT 4.0 again to analyses it:

Share of the most important energy sources in global primary energy consumption from 2020 to 2022

ChatGPT 4.0

The chart you’ve presented highlights the proportion of various energy sources in global primary energy consumption from 2020 to 2022. The significance of this information, especially when discussing climate change, is immense. Here’s a breakdown:

1. Oil Consumption:
   • Oil remains a primary source of energy, with its share slightly decreasing from 31.3% in 2020 to 31.1% in 2021 and 31.6% in 2022. Even with technological advancements and global efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, oil’s prominence as an energy source persists. This could be attributed to transportation needs and industrial applications.
2. Coal:
   • Coal’s contribution has shown a decline from 27.2% in 2020 to 26.9% in 2021 and further to 26.7% in 2022. This reduction might be driven by worldwide initiatives to curtail coal use due to its heavy carbon footprint and the environmental damage caused by mining.
3. Natural Gas:
   • Natural gas, another major fossil fuel, has seen a reduction from 24.7% in 2020 to 24.5% in 2021, but a slight increase to 25.3% in 2022. This could signify the shift of many industries from coal to gas, as gas is often touted as a ‘cleaner’ fossil fuel. Still, its rising consumption can have implications for greenhouse gas emissions.
4. Hydropower:
   • Hydropower remains relatively stable, from 6.9% in 2020 to 6.8% in 2021 and 6.7% in 2022. This might be due to the maturity of the technology and the geographical limitations of harnessing water for power.
5. Renewables:
   • The chart showcases a hopeful trend for renewables, rising from 5.7% in 2020 to 6.7% in 2021 and further to 7.5% in 2022. This indicates global efforts to shift towards cleaner energy sources. The rapid growth rate of renewables within just two years is noteworthy and aligns with the global narrative of combating climate change.
6. Nuclear:
   • Nuclear energy sees a decline from 4.3% in 2020 to 4.2% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. This might be attributed to safety concerns, waste disposal issues, and the high costs associated with building and maintaining nuclear power plants.

So you see, there is a little glimpse of hope in the rising of renewables but to be fair, the IEA (International Energy Agency) warns that to keep the Paris Agreement we need to rise the contribution of renewables from 7.5% to 30% until 2030:

That looks like a Mission Impossible, but I would say from a technical point of view it could work. Due to the current political conflicts with wars in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine, however, I wouldn’t bet on that.

Are renewables the last fix we can provide for the climate crises? No, they are the technology with the least side effects, but not the only technologies we should consider. And I strongly advise discussing them now and not in five years. They have a deep impact, but they also have the potential to mitigate the climate crisis effectively.

One suggestion is the CRISPER CAS9 gene editing method. With this method, you can even inherit the gene manipulation to your descendants. Scientists from this field think it can safely be done to make the digestion of cattle more effective so that they dramatically produce less Methane (NH₄) during digestion.

The process of photosynthesis is a complex and intricate process, and you can consider it a time-consuming process. On a cellular level, the individual reactions involved in photosynthesis occur quite rapidly. For instance, the conversion of carbon dioxide and ribulose bisphosphate to form 3-phosphoglycerate in the Calvin cycle is a quick chemical reaction. However, for a plant to produce a noticeable amount of glucose, millions of these reactions need to take place, which can make it seem “timely” on a macroscopic scale.

Also in this matter, scientists say they are in reach of speeding up the photosyntheses. I provided some links for further details. But that these measures have deeper consequences for solving the climate crisis than the renewables approach should be obvious.

From my point of view, still the most preferable solution is to boost renewables because they are a fix with the least side effects, but if renewables don’t come to scale in time, then we should also discuss these measures.

Further links:

Hurrikan Otis – Wikipedia (German)

Hurrikan Otis – Wikipedia (English)

Erneuerbare: Ausbau schneller als geplant – DW – 06.12.2022

Statistiken zu Erneuerbaren Energien weltweit | Statista

Gen Editing: Die 5 wichtigsten Fragen zu CRISPR/Cas9 – Spektrum der Wissenschaft

Photosynthese (Fotosynthese) – Lexikon – transgen.de

So kommen Pflanzen besser mit Hitze und Trockenheit klar – quarks.de

This blog was created and designed by myself but reviewed and revised by ChatGPT 4.0.

Content also available as podcast (I recommend listening to the podcast while scrolling through the blog):

The complete story

Sub-stories:

• Story-telling and climate change (intro).

• From water to steam, the story of the second law.

• From droplets to the cultural ‘fluid’.

• The industrial revolution kick-starts the bubbling.

• Where are we standing now, 270 years later?

• The OECD Report about the tipping-points of earth’s ecosystem.

• Greenland and West Antarctica ice-shields

• Impact on AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)

• Albedo Feedback and Arctic Warming

• What is Arctic Permafrost?

• Current State and Thresholds Amazon Forest

• Coral Reefs and Climate Change

• Tipping point mitigation list

• Conclusion

The story about “water to steam” and us.

Audio for complete story:

Audio for ‘Story-telling and climate change’ (intro):

In this blog, I aim to revisit the complex issue of climate change. My goal is to provide a clear explanation for the extreme weather events we are witnessing and how they relate to human behavior and lifestyle. This will be a detailed exploration, so if you’re not interested in delving into the intricacies of the subject, you may choose to stop reading now, as it could cause unease or even anger. For those keen on gaining a deeper understanding, I encourage you to continue reading.

I must clarify that this blog reflects my personal understanding of climate change, and I make no academic claim to possess the ‘absolute truth‘, if such a thing even exists.

We, as humans, construct narratives—mixtures of imagination and reality—to comprehend ourselves and the world around us. This unique ability to tell stories sets us apart from other species on Earth. It empowers us to unify behind abstract concepts like money, even to the point of causing harm to one another in pursuit of it. Take, for example, the phrase ‘In God We Trust‘ printed on the one-dollar bill. No chimpanzee would ever trade a banana for a piece of paper, despite their ability to trade tangible goods.

Chimpanzees likely have a more reality-based existence; they don’t concoct stories attributing value to colored pieces of paper. Humans, on the other hand, share stories to explain the world. These stories may not always align with reality, and while we may not always agree with each narrative, we classify them in our minds to better understand ‘our’ world.

Keep this introduction in mind as I share my narrative on the phenomenon of climate change—a story that, I believe, reveals much about our collective psyche.

From water to steam, the story of the second law.

Audio for this chapter:

When discussing physics, it’s customary to begin with definitions. I’ve chosen three key terms to serve as the backbone for my narrative on climate change.

1. Tipping Point: Picture pushing a boulder up a hill. It demands a great deal of effort to set it in motion and keep it rolling. But once you crest the hill and start pushing it down the other side, it rapidly gains speed and becomes unstoppable.
2. Phase Transition: Consider boiling water. One moment it’s liquid, and then, upon reaching a certain temperature, it turns into steam. This sudden change is known as a phase transition, which in physics refers to a system changing states under specific conditions.
3. Irreversible: Imagine using a permanent marker to draw on paper. Once the ink settles, there’s no erasing it—it’s permanent. In the same way, ‘irreversible’ in physics describes changes that can’t be easily undone or reversed in a short time frame.

Now, let’s delve into a phenomenon we’re all familiar with: boiling water. If you’ve ever watched water boil in a glass kettle, you’ve seen this phase transition firsthand. Initially, the water appears calm and still.

However, this is deceiving. Even at room temperature, water molecules (H₂O) are engaged in structured movements. This is because H₂O is an electric dipole, meaning the oxygen atom is slightly negatively charged, while the two hydrogen atoms are slightly positively charged.

Ich gebe zu, ich habe seltsame Hobbys, eins davon ist mein Bemühen unser Gehirn besser zu verstehen. Ein manchmal hoffnungsloses Unterfangen, das gebe ich gerne zu, aber KI kann auch hier helfen. So lese ich derzeit die Bücher: “Epigenetik” von Bernhard Kegel und “Wie das Gehirn die Seele macht” von Gerhard Roth und Nicole Strüber. Das erste Buch umfasst mit Anhang immerhin 366 Seiten und das zweite nur 522 Seiten. Dass ich sie in meinem verbleibenden Leben vollständig durchlesen werde, ist unwahrscheinlich. Trotzdem kann ich beide sehr empfehlen. Sie sind sehr interessant geschrieben, nur wimmelt es an Fachbegriffen der Neurobiologie und Biologie war nun wirklich nie meine Stärke. Zwar haben mich Naturwissenschaften immer interessiert, jedoch mein Wissen über Biologie ist sehr begrenzt. Doch hier kann KI hervorragend helfen.

In beiden Büchern wird sehr intensiv die Genexpression behandelt? Bitte was? Was soll das bedeuten? Ok, hier zahlt sich wieder mein großes Latinum aus. Ex-pression steht für aus-drücken, Gene, die sich ausdrücken? Viel weiter komme ich aber mit meinem Latinum nicht. Aber es gibt, ja heutzutage ChatGPT. Und da stellen wir uns janz dumm und fragen es:

Aha, wird der geneigte Biologe sagen, das ist also damit gemeint. Mit meinem biologischen Sachverstand bin ich da aber bisher nicht viel weiter gekommen. Ich weiß zwar noch, dass im Zellkern sich ein langkettiges super Molekül namens DNA aufhält und das, da alle unsere Eigenschaften “kodiert” sind und dass die DNA aus Genen besteht, was immer Gene genau sind, und damit endet dann auch mein Wissen in diesem Bereich.

Der erfahrene KI-Experte wird allerdings sagen, dass die Antwort in meinem bescheidenen Prompt Engineering begründet ist. Das KI-System erkennt, dass es sich um eine Frage aus der Neurobiologie handelt und nimmt zunächst an, dass der Fragesteller, neudeutsch=der Prompt Ingenieur, in diesem Gebiet bewandert ist.

Also muss ich meine Fragestellung anpassen.

Also das verstehe ich schon mal wesentlich besser. Da ich Programmierer bin, passe ich den Prompt noch mal an:

Jetzt bin ich buchstäblich im Bilde. Die Transformationsfähigkeiten von KI sind eine der großen Stärken der KI. Die Fähigkeit, Muster zu erkennen und diese in analoge Muster zu überführen, sind nahezu grenzenlos.

So kann man die KI auch mathematische Beweise führen lassen, aber bitte in Reimform:

Für mich ist diese Darstellungsform des Beweises nicht so die geeignete, aber die Darstellung ist vollkommen korrekt. Wer den Euklidischen Beweis noch mal nachlesen will, hier ein entsprechender Link:(https://matheguru.com/allgemein/beweis-dass-es-unendlich-viele-primzahlen-gibt.html?utm_content=cmp-true).

Ich verstehe die Beweisführung eher in diesem Format:

Diese Beweisführung ist wohl für die meisten nicht so geeignet, aber für Programmierer schon.

“Large Language Models” wie ChatGPT können Antworten so anpassen, dass sie für den jeweiligen Fragesteller leicht verständlich und nützlich sind, unabhängig davon, wie vertraut der Fragesteller mit dem Thema ist. Das halte ich für einen großen Gewinn für jedermann bzw. -frau.

Dabei kann man das bei ChatGPT auch noch über den sogenannten “System Prompt” instruieren: